Wildfire Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping Using Remote Sensing, GIS and Weighted Overlay Method in the Eastern Aures in Khenchela, Algeria

Abstract

Wildfires are one of the natural disasters that cause harmful environmental and economic losses and pose a threat to ecosystems around the world. Consequently, measures must be carefully developed to predict their occurrence and mitigate their damage. This study aims to map the vulnerability to forest fires in the eastern Aures region of Algeria, which is exposed to frequent fires, by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). In this respect, a geodatabase has been created, with 12 criteria influencing identifying areas of vulnerability to forest fires and grouping them into four main categories (forest characteristics, human factors, relief, and climate). In this context, the Weighted Overlay (WOA) technique was used, as this technique relies on calculating the numerical weights for each factor through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and then the Forest Fire Vulnerability Index (FFVI) was derived. Through overlaying criterion, raster layers for each criterion and the results are represented in a vulnerability map. The vulnerability map shows very high, high, medium, low, and very low classes. High and very high vulnerabilities occupy 31.54% of the total studied surface. Moreover, the burned areas in the study area for 2021 were determined using Senti-nel-2 satellite images and calculating the Natural Burning Ratio (NBR) to assess the FFVI. We performed a spatial overlay between the NBR and the FFVI to validate the results. This overlay was translated into the ROC curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) using GIS software. The precision coefficient (AUC) was determined to be 0.778, indicating that the weighted overlay technique is effective. Therefore, it indicates that the WOA technique is effective and will help decision-makers improve emergency management and forest protection to minimize damage.