The Three Scenarios for Vocational Education And Training in Europe

Abstract

This article analyses the implicit social implications of vocational curricula in the stigmatisation of students within vocational education and training (VET) systems in Europe. It examines how the symbolic power of society and educational agents influences the social perception of vocational pathways and contributes to the reproduction of inequality. Grounded in a hermeneutic perspective, the study interprets the representations and discourses surrounding VET as social constructions shaped by values, beliefs, and institutional contexts. Based on documentary analysis, three scenarios were developed using the scenario-planning framework proposed by Snoek et al. (2004), structured around CEDEFOP’s analytical axes: demographic change and participation, technological transformation of work, inclusion and equity, and the relationship between VET and the labour market. The findings highlight that vocational education in Europe continues to mirror broader social hierarchies, functioning simultaneously as a site of opportunity and exclusion. The scenarios reveal how different policy and social trajectories may either reinforce or mitigate these dynamics. By combining interpretative analysis and prospective reflection, the article contributes to a critical understanding of VET as both a social and political construct, offering insights for policy innovation and the promotion of a more inclusive European educational space.