Posljedice deaktivacije fiskalnih pravila Europske unije i njihove ponovne uspostave
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15291/oec.4662Ključne riječi:
Fiskalna pravila EU-a, pandemija COVID-19, fiskalna politika, gospodarsko upravljanje, održivost javnog dugaSažetak
Članak analizira deaktivaciju i naknadnu ponovnu uspostavu fiskalnih pravila Europske unije kao odgovor na pandemiju COVID-19 i njezine posljedice. Procjenjuju se makroekonomske i fiskalne posljedice suspenzije fiskalnih pravila te njihova uloga u suočavanju s bezpresedanskim ekonomskim izazovima. Korištena je metodologija temeljena na pregledu literature, uz korištenje sekundarnih podataka iz relevantnih izvora poput Europske komisije i Eurostata. Studija također uključuje procjenu održivosti slovenskog javnog duga temeljenu na Monte Carlo simulacijama. Rezultati pokazuju da je suspenzija fiskalnih pravila omogućila državama članicama EU-a provedbu ekspanzivnih fiskalnih mjera koje su ublažile gospodarski udar pandemije, ali su istovremeno dovele do znatnog povećanja razine javnog duga. Unatoč tim intervencijama, i dalje postoje razlike u fiskalnim odgovorima i ishodima među državama članicama. Također se ističu izazovi ponovne uspostave fiskalnih pravila u uvjetima visokog javnog duga i promjenjivih gospodarskih okolnosti, uz naglasak na potrebu za fleksibilnošću i prilagođenim pristupima. Rezultati sugeriraju da se slovenski dug očekuje kao održiv, no vanjski šokovi, troškovi starenja stanovništva i dugotrajno niska stopa rasta mogli bi promijeniti taj trend. Ograničenja istraživanja uključuju oslanjanje na agregirane podatke i nedostatak primarnih empirijskih dokaza. Preporuke uključuju poboljšanje okvira fiskalnog upravljanja kako bi se postigla ravnoteža između održivosti i fleksibilnosti te jačanje mehanizama za osiguranje usklađenosti država članica s pravilima.
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