Psihologija ekonomskih narativa: emocionalna asimetrija i paradoks prognoza inflacije
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15291/oec.4858Ključne riječi:
emocionalni okvir, očekivanja inflacije, inverzni efekt, narativna ekonomija, bihevioralne financije, osjećaj, stručna komunikacijaSažetak
Ovaj rad istražuje utjecaj emocionalnog tona u komentarima stručnjaka na prognoze inflacije, uz zadržavanje stalnog informativnog sadržaja. Korištenjem koncepata iz bihevioralne ekonomije i kognitivne psihologije, posebice okvira, sidrenja i pozitivne-negativne asimetrije, istraživanje prikazuje "inverzni efekt", odnosno suprotan obrazac koji povećava prognoze inflacije uz umirujuće komentare, dok alarmistički komentari smanjuju iste. Proveden je eksperiment između grupa u kojem je sudjelovalo 254 poljskih studenata, odabranih zbog njihovog ograničenog ekonomskog znanja. Sudionici su nasumično raspoređeni za primanje pozitivno ili negativno intoniranih komentara koji su informacijski bili ekvivalentni, a zatim su dali prognoze prije i nakon intervencije. Analiza podataka provedena je korištenjem neparametrijskih testova (Mann-Whitney U i Wilcoxon). Rezultati pokazuju da emocionalni okvir ima značajan utjecaj na očekivanja. Negativni ton imao je izraženiji učinak od pozitivnog tona, što je u skladu s konceptom afektivne asimetrije; međutim, smjer promjene bio je suprotan početnim hipotezama, čime se potvrđuje inverzni efekt. Ovi rezultati poboljšavaju razumijevanje načina na koji ekonomska komunikacija može oblikovati javno mišljenje bez uvođenja novih informacija, a imaju implikacije za središnje banke, donositelje politika i medije. Ograničenja studije uključuju nereprezentativnost uzorka studenata, laboratorijsko okruženje i ograničeno mjerenje individualnih razlika. Buduća istraživanja mogla bi uključivati terenske uvjete, različit uzorak i metodologije temeljene na modelima kako bi ispitala uvjete granice i potvrdila inverzni efekt u različitim formatima.
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