Intraregionalna trgovina i zagonetka izostale globalizacije
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15291/oec.3206Ključne riječi:
globalizacija, intraregionalna trgovina, zagonetka udaljenosti, panel-regresijsko modeliranjeSažetak
Globalizacija je dovela do smanjenja troškova prijevoza i značajnog širenja međunarodne trgovine. Međutim, postoje dokazi koji upućuju na neuspješno smanjenje trgovinskih troškova, prikazano porastom koeficijenta udaljenosti u standardnom gravitacijskom modelu. U ovom radu istaknuta je važnost intraregionalne trgovine pri objašnjenju zagonetke izostale globalizacije ili zagonetke udaljenosti. Procijenjen je panel regresijski model korištenjem bilateralnih trgovinskih podataka za uvoz EU-15 zemalja u razdoblju 2001. – 2018. godine. Model slučajnih efekata odabran je kao najprikladniji model s obzirom na vremenski nepromjenjive karakteristike podataka. Učinak udaljenosti predstavljen je varijablom udaljenost definiranom kao udaljenost između glavnih gradova zemalja trgovinskih partnera. Dodatne binarne varijable uključene u analizu su zajednička granica, pripadnost EU-15 grupi zemalja i pripadnost istom kontinentu. Rezultati analize pokazali su da zagonetka izostale globalizacije još uvijek vrijedi. Vrijednosti regresijskih koeficijenata varijable udaljenost porasle su u promatranom razdoblju kako u procijenjenom cjelokupnom panel modelu, tako i u modelima specificiranih za pojedine zemlje. Nadalje, vrijednost koeficijenta regresije značajno ovisi i o uzorku koji se uzima. Na primjer, kada se promatraju samo trgovinski tokovi u rasponu od 1 000 km, vrijednosti regresijskih koeficijenata varijable udaljenost vrlo su velike, što implicira porast učinka udaljenosti.
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