Pregled dužničkih kriza u Eurozoni - iskustva i pouke
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15291/oec.4411Ključne riječi:
dužnička kriza, eurozona, državni dug, Grčka, Italija, Španjolska, Portugal, Irska, ECB, fiskalna pravilaSažetak
Predmet ovoga rada je europska dužnička kriza koja se obično smješta u razdoblje 2008-2015. godine u kojem je nekoliko europskih zemalja doživjelo kolaps financijskih institucija, visok državni dug i velike razlike prinosa na državne obveznice. Cilj rada je prikazati uzroke nastanka financijskih kriza te načina rješavanja i izbjegavanja financijske zaraze i kolapsa eura. Smatra se da je dužnička kriza započela 2008. kolapsom islandskog bankarskog sustava, a zatim se 2009. prvenstveno proširila na Portugal, Italiju, Irsku, Grčku i Španjolsku, što je dovelo do popularnog relativno uvredljivog naziva (PIIGS). Rubne države članice Eurozone kao što su Grčka, Španjolska, Irska, Portugal i Cipar do kraja 2009. nisu mogle otplatiti niti refinancirati svoj državni dug. Bankovni sustav je bio pred kolapsom, a pomoć financijskih institucija trećih strana kao što su Europsku središnju banku (ECB) ili Međunarodni monetarni fond (MMF) bile su od presudnog značaja. Kriza je na kraju kontrolirana financijskim jamstvima europskih zemalja koje su se bojale kolapsa eura i financijske zaraze koja je posebno prijetila iz Grčke. Na osnovu takvog iskustva, u Eurozoni 2012. pokrenut je Europski stabilizacijski mehanizam (ESM) kao međuvladina organizacija država članica Eurozone s misijom izbjegavanja i prevladavanja financijskih kriza te održavanje financijske stabilnosti. U konačnici, svemu se pridružila i ECB koja svojim nestandardnim mjerama monetarne politike od sredine 2014. kroz programe kupnje imovine (APP-Asset Prurchase Programmes) poglavito od javnog sektora (PSPP-Public Sector Purchase Programme) s ciljem podržavanja ukupnog gospodarskog rasta u okviru inflacije na ciljnoj razini od 2%. Ipak, inflatorni udar od početka 2022. u kombinaciji s energetskom krizom izgurali su u prvi plan pitanje porasta prinosa (kamata) na državni dug nasuprot niskih stopa gospodarskog rasta širom Eurozone. Svrha rada postiže se aktualiziranjem pitanja o održivosti postojećih modela upravljanja rizicima za očuvanje financijske stabilnosti te podizanjem svijesti o tome, naročito u kontekstu tzv. novih fiskalnih pravila EU-a u 2024. godini.
Reference
Afonso, A.; Verdial, N. (2020). „Sovereign Debt Crisis in Portugal and Spain“, EconPol Working Paper, No.40, ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munch, Munich, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/219502/1/econpol-wp-40.pdf, pristupano 27.11.2023.
Auret, L. (2010). „Could Italy Be Better Off than its Peers?”, CNBC, https://web.archive.org/web/20110430030613/http://www.cnbc.com/id/37207942/Could_Italy_Be_Better_Off_than_its_Peers, pristupano 27.11.2023.
Baudino, P., Murphy, D., Svornos, J. (listopad 2020). „The banking crisis in Ireland”, Financial Stability Institute, https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsicms2.pdf, pristupano 29.11.2023.
Baudino, P., Herrera, M., Restoy, F. (srpanj 2023). „The 2008-14 banking crisis in Spain”, Financial Stability Institute, https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsicms4.pdf, pristupano 27.11.2023.
BBC (5. svibnja 2010). „Three dead as Greece protest turns violent”, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8661385.stm, pristupano 21.11.2023.
BBC (4. prosinca 2011). „Italy crisis: Mario Monti announces austerity plan”, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16024316, pristupano 27.11.2023.
BBC News (9. lipnja 2012). „Spanish banks to get up to 100bn euros in rescue loans”. https://www.bbc.com/news/business- 18382659, pristupano 27.11.2023
Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com
CSIC- Center for Strategic & International Studies; Steinberg, F. ; The New European Fiscal Rules, February 2, 2024; https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-european-fiscal-rules, pristupano 20.3.2024.
Clowes Huneke, S. (2011). „The Accumulation of Greek Debt”, Seven Pillars Institute, https://www.sevenpillarsinstitute.org/case-studies/1492-2/#:~:text=Greece%2C%20though
%2C%20negotiated%20a%20non,a%20greater%20number%20of%20Euros,pristupano 21.11.2023.
Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Scheme 2008. https://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2008/si/411/made/en/html, pristupano 29.11.2023
Diario de Noticias (23. sprnja 2009.), „Caso BPP: constituídos mais dois arguidos”, https://www.dn.pt/dossiers/economia/caso-bpp/noticias/caso-bpp-constituidos-mais-dois-arguidos—1317030.html, pristupano 27.11.2023.
Draghi, M. (2012), Remarks made at the Global Investment Forum, London, 26 July.
Državni zavod za statistiku Grčke, pristupano 21.11.2023.
Državni zavod za statistiku Grčke putem tradingeconomics.com, https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-budget, pristupano 19.11.2023
Državni zavod za statistiku Irske, pristupano 29.11.2023
ECB Blog: Bouabdallah, O., Hynes, W., Kostka, T., Schumacher, J., Valenta V.:
Fiscal policy: from free to affordable lunch, 4 January 2023.
ECB Monetary policy decisions, PRESS RELEASE, 7 March 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html
European Council (21 December 2023): Economic governance review: Council agrees on reform of fiscal rules; https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/
/12/21/economic-governance-review-council-agrees-on-reform-of-fiscal-rules/, pristupano 20.3.2024.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED – Economic Data.
Financial Times (20. listopad 2009). „Greece vows action to cut budget deficit”, https://www.ft.com/content/3e7e0e46-bd47-11de-9f6a-00144feab49a, pristupano 21.11.2023
Grabowski, Wojciech & Stawasz, Ewa. (2017). „Sovereign Bond Spreads in the EMU Peripheral Countries. The Role of the Outright Monetary Transactions”. Prague Economic Papers. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.618. 10.18267/j.pep.618. , pristupano 21.11.2023.
Hobelsberger, K., Kok, C., Mongelli, F.P.: A tale of three crises: synergies between, Occasional Paper Series, ECB tasks, Revised June 2023
Jimeno, J. F., Santos, T. (kolovoz 2014). „The crisis of the Spanish economy”. Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/
_The_crisis_of_the_Spanish_economy, pristupano 27.11.2023.
Katsikas, D., Bazoti, P. (prosinac 2020). „Managing the Crisis in Greece: The Missing Link between External Conditionality and Domestic Political Economy”, https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-54895-7.pdf, pristupano 20.11.2023.
Lehmann, K.E (2020). The Crisis: Its Management and Impact on Equity and Democracy in Portugal and Possible Consequences for the EU¸, Springer
Mahapatra, B. (21. rujna 2012). „Underlying concepts and principles of dynamic provisioning”, Conference on Introduction of dynamic provisioning framework for banks in India, glavni govor. https://www.bis.org/review/r120924b.pdf, pristupano 27.11.2023.
Nelson, E. (26. srpnja 2017). „Five years ago today, Mario Draghi saved the euro”, Quartz. https://qz.com/1038954/whatever-it-takes-five-years-ago-today-mario-draghi-saved-the-euro-with-a-momentous-speech, pristupano 21.11.2023.
OECD, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/, pristupano 20.11.2023.
Romano, S. (2020). „The 2011 Crisis in Italy: A Story of Deep-Rooted (and Still Unresolved) Economic and Political Weaknesses”, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-54895-7_10, pristupano 28.11.2023.
RTE News (13. veljače 2009). „Statement Credit Institutions (Financial by the Financial Regulator”. https://web.archive.org/web/20090217184037/http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0213/financialregulator.html, pristupano 29.11.2023.
Središnji ured za statistiku Irske putem tradingeconomics.com, https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-debt-to-gdp, pristupano 21.11.2023
Tremlett, G. (8. lipnja 2012). „Span's savings banks' culture of greed, cronyism and political meddling”. The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/08/spain-savings-banks-corruption, pristupano 27.11.2023.
Weil, J. (16. sprnja 2012). „Worldly Wise: EU smiled while Spain's banks cooked the books”. Bloomberg, https://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/worldly-wise-eu-smiled-while-spains-banks-cooked-the-books-1.1036216, pristupano 27.11.2023
Whelan, K. (18. lipnja 2023). „Ireland's Economic Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”. University College Dublin, https://www.karlwhelan.com/Papers/Whelan-IrelandPaper-June2013.pdf, pristupano 29.11.2023.
Vicente, Isabel (10. ožujka 2020). „Morreu José Oliveira e Costa, fundador do BPN”, Expresso50, https://expresso.pt/economia/2020-03-10-Morreu-Jose-Oliveira-e-Costa-fundador-do-BPN, pristupano 27.11.2023.
