Kako nelinearna fiskalna reakcija utječe na fiskalnu održivost Hrvatske u uvjetima promjenjivih režima fiskalne politike?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15291/oec.4839Ključne riječi:
Hrvatska, ekspanzivna i restriktivna fiskalna politika, fiskalna održivost, procikličnost i protucikličnost, nelinearna fiskalna reakcijaSažetak
Rad istražuje učinke nelinearne fiskalne reakcije na fiskalnu održivost Hrvatske u uvjetima promjenjivih režima fiskalne politike. Nalazi istraživanja tako su potvrdili nelinearnu vezu između primarnog fiskalnog salda i javnog duga u osnovnom modelu, dok u proširenim modelima ta veza uglavnom prelazi u linearni odnos, ovisno o promatranom skupu varijabli. Time se potvrđuje da, unatoč prevladavajućoj linearnoj prirodi fiskalne politike, fiskalne reakcije kreatora politike nisu nužno homogene jer se njihovi impulsi mogu znatno mijenjati ovisno o pragovima javnog duga. Dodatno, nalazi potvrđuju recesivnu i regresivnu prirodu indirektnih poreznih prihoda te progresivnu prirodu direktnih poreznih prihoda. Jaz BDP-a i direktni porezni prihodi djeluju kao korektivni stabilizatori, pokazujući manju cikličnost i značajan doprinos u poboljšanju ukupne fiskalne pozicije države tijekom ciklusa ekspanzije. Markovljevi modeli i test robusnosti jasno ukazuju da Hrvatska dominantno provodi restriktivnu i procikličnu fiskalnu politiku, ali i da je provedba takve politike u fazi recesije i konsolidacije dodatno produbila recesiju.
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