Overview of Physical Climate Risks and Their Impact on the Economy and Financial System of Croatia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15291/oec.4434Keywords:
klimatske promjene, fizički rizici, makroekonomija, financijska stabilnost, HrvatskaAbstract
This paper employs an interdisciplinary approach, merging climatology with economic and financial analysis, to deepen understanding of how climate change affects the economy and financial system of Croatia. Using geospatial analysis of data from the IPCC and Copernicus programmes, we have identifed regions within Croatia variably exposed to climate risks, enabling more precise risk assessments for banks and financial institutions. The work also contributes to the theoretical understanding of the relationships between climate change and macroeconomic variables and provides a framework for analysing the long-term economic effects of climate change. The research results can serve as a basis for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate risks at the national level. Specifically, this paper also serves as a data source for formulating policies aimed at reducing the economy’s vulnerability to climate change.
References
Baldauf, M., Garlappi, L., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Does climate change affect real estate prices? only if you believe in it. The Review of Financial Studies. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3240200.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2022). Principles for the effective management and supervision of climate-related financial risks [https://www.bis.org].
Batten, S. (2018, January). Climate change and the macro-economy: A critical review (Staff Working Paper No. 706) (A). Bank of England. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2018/climate-change-and-the-macro-economy-a-critical-review.
Breckenfelder, J., Mackowiak, B., Marques, D., Olovsson, C., Popov, A., & Porcellacchia, D. (2023). The climate and the economy (Discussion Paper Series No. No. 19) (Available from the European Central Bank). European Central Bank.
Church, J. A., White, N. J., & Konikow, L. F. (2011). Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature, 517(7535), 481–484.
Copernicus Climate Change Service. (2020). Fire danger indicators for europe from 1970 to 2098 derived from climate projection [Pristupljeno 21. veljače 2024.]. https: //doi.org/10.24381/cds.ca755de7
Drudi, F., Moench, E., et al. (2021, September). Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area (Occasional Paper Series No. 271). European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu
European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority. (2022). Application guidance on running climate change materiality assessment and using climate change scenarios in the ORSA.
Europska središnja banka. (2020). Guide on climate-related and environmental risks [https://www.ecb.europa.eu].
Europski parlament i Vijeće. (2007). Direktiva 2007/60/EC Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća od 23. listopada 2007. o procjeni i upravljanju rizicima od poplava. Available: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/HR/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32007 L0060]. Službeni list Europske unije, L 288. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conten t/HR/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32007L0060
Gallagher, K. P., Stephenson, C., Monasterolo, I., & Ramos, L. (2022). Climate risk and imf surveillance policy: A baseline analysis. Climate Policy. https://doi.org/1 0.1080/14693062.2021.2016363
Gazibara, S., Krkač, M., & Mihalić Arbanas, S. (2023). Karta zoniranja rizika od klizišta republike hrvatske m 1:100.000 [Skup podataka: karta_zoniranja_rizika_od_klizista_rh_m1_100.000.zip, 4.86 MB. Dokumentacija: alat_14_100000_rh_rizik.pdf, 4.53 MB. Pravo pristupa: Otvoren pristup]. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:169:282558
Giannakopoulos, C., & Zanacchi, M. (2020). European Fire Danger Application Product User Guide [Issued by: National Observatory of Athens / ECMWF.].
Giorgi, F., Hurrell, J. W., Marinucci, M. R., & Beniston, M. (1997). Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: A model study. Journal of Climate, 10(2), 288–296.
Gutiérrez, J., Jones, R., Narisma, G., Alves, L., Amjad, M., Gorodetskaya, I., Grose, M., Klutse, N., Krakovska, S., Li, J., Martínez-Castro, D., Mearns, L., Mernild, S., Ngo-Duc, T., van den Hurk, B., & Yoon, J.-H. (2021). Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. Connors, C. Péan, Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. Matthews, T. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou (Eds.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.021.
Hrvatske Vode. (2023). Nacrt plana upravljanja vodnim područjima 2022. - 2027. Dostupno na: https://mingor.gov.hr/UserDocsImages/Uprava_vodnoga_gospodarstva_i_zast_mora/PLAN%20UPRAVLJANJA%20VODNIM%20PODRU%C4%8CJIMA%20DO%202027..pdf
IMF. (2023, June). Energy security and climate change: Challenges and opportunities for Croatia (IMF Country Report No. No. 23/234) (Available from International Monetary Fund - Publication Services). International Monetary Fund. Washington D.C.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Annex vi: Climatic impact-driver and extreme indices. in: Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. contribution of working group i to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. Matthews, T. Maycock, Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou, Eds.).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/].
International Monetary Fund. (2019). Fiscal Policies for Paris Climate Strategies— from Principle to Practice. Policy Paper No. 2019/010. International Monetary Fund: Washington, DC.
Kapsi, I., Kall, T., & Liibusk, A. (2023). Sea level rise and future projections in the baltic sea [Accessed on 21st February 2024]. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(8), 1514. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11081514.
Keys, B. J., & Mulder, P. (2020, October). Neglected no more: Housing markets, mortgage lending, and sea level rise (Working Paper No. 27930). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27930.
Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K., & Huss, M. (2018). Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change. Earth’s Future, 6(3), 230–239.
Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2), 202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group. (2015). Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nature Climate Change, 5, 424–430. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563
Network for Greening the Financial System. (2020). Climate change and monetary policy: Initial takeaways (tech. rep.) (For more details visit www.ngfs.net). Network for Greening the Financial System. Chaired by Sabine Mauderer, Deutsche Bundesbank, Coordinated by the NGFS Secretariat/Banque de France. https://www.ngfs.net/en
NGFS. (2019, July). Macroeconomic and financial stability implications of climate change (tech. rep.) (Technical supplement to the First comprehensive report - Call for action). Network for Greening the Financial System. Paris, France. https://ww w.banque-france.fr
Reljić, M., Romić, M., Romić, D., Gilja, G., Mrnar, V., Ondrasek, G., Kovačić, M. B., & Zovko, M. (2023). Advanced continuous monitoring system—tools for water resource management and decision support system in salt affected delta [Published on 3 February 2023]. Agriculture, 13(2), 369. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13020369
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D., Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B., & Rogelj, J. (2017). The shared socio-economic pathways (ssps): An overview [Poster presented by Joeri Rogelj. [Affiliations: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and others]].
Svjetska banka. (2021). Climate risk country profile: Croatia [Accessed: 05.04.2024.].
Zenios, S. A. (2022). The risks from climate change to sovereign debt. Climatic Change, 172(30), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03373-4


